It is expected that a cyclonic circulation will occur around May 6 over the Bay of Bengal.

According to a recent forecast from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), a cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the southeast Bay of Bengal around May 6, 2023, which may develop into a low-pressure area over the same region during subsequent 48 hours. While IMD has not yet specified the potential path of the cyclonic circulation, experts believe that the West Bengal coast could be affected, especially given the recent trend of cyclones in the region moving in that direction. Recent cyclones in the area, including Amphan in 2020, Asani in 2021, and Yaas in 2022, all made landfall in May. Most models suggest that the circulation will initially move northwestward before turning northeastward over the central Bay of Bengal, indicating that the Odisha and Bengal coasts, as well as the Bangladesh coast, may be impacted. The IMD report notes that current conditions in the Bay of Bengal are conducive to the formation of cyclones, with both “tropical cyclone’s heat potential” and “sea surface temperature” reaching optimal values required for such formation. Several weather models predict that the low-pressure area will intensify into a cyclonic storm, with the possibility of it becoming a severe cyclonic storm.